The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just published its Regional Economic Outlook. It indicated the Cemac countries will experience a 29.9% decrease in GDP in 2024.

For sub-Saharan Africa, real GDP growth is expected to rise from 3.6% in 2023 to 4.2%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points “assuming that the global economy recovers, inflation slows as expected, and monetary policy tightening is gradually phased out,” the report says.

However, forecasts for the Cemac zone (Cameroon, CAR, Gabon, Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Chad) are mixed. Contrary to the 3.5% growth rate projected for 2023, the Bretton Woods institution now expects 3.3% (-0.2 points). This rate should continue its downward trend to reach 2.9% in 2024, i.e. the same performance as in 2022 and 0.4 points less year-on-year.

This projected decline in the 06 countries can be explained by the growth of GDP in Equatorial Guinea, which is expected to fall from -1.2% in 2023  to -8.2% in 2024 due to the decline in its oil production. However, according to IMF data, the other countries will experience an upturn in 2024. CAR should record the strongest growth of 3.8% , followed by Congo 4.6%, Chad 3.7%. Cameroon and Gabon are expected to post 4.4%  and 3.1%respectively.

On the other hand, the inflation rate in the CEMAC, according to the IMF, should be 4% in 2024 against 4.9% at the end of 2023 . Also, the overall budget balance, including grants, should improve by 0.4 points from -2.8% of GDP in 2023 to -2.4% of GDP in 2024. Another optimistic indicator is the public debt, which is expected to fall to 48.3% (2024) of GDP from 50.3% (2023) of GDP.

It should be noted that the IMF’s outlook for CEMAC is significantly lower than that of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), which also uses the CFAF as its common currency. GDP growth in this zone of 08 countries is expected to be 7.4% compared to 6.1% at the end of the current year, i.e. 1.3% higher.